Month 8: Profitable trades - around 25%, - $763, o...
# active-trading
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Month 8: Profitable trades - around 25%, - $763, overall + $192. February was by far my worst month, i think the main indexes are mostly moving sideways and even starting to decline now signaling distribution from the market makers. It is also a very bad time to trade in these sideways consolidation phases as the trend is not really established and it is very hard to say where it is going to go from one week to the next. Some stocks have shown sharp moves, but they all happened pretty quickly and you were either pre-positioned or mostly missed out, examples are oil, consumer staples, volatility like VIX, and utilities like Verizon or ATT. I am moving down my trade size again to 1000 and mainly sitting on the sidelines until i see a clear trend emerging. It looks like the VTI which looks a lot like the SPY is finally breaking down just like it did last year before the liberation day tariffs. I have been out of VTI since it went under the dark blue 50 day moving average, and will probably short it once it goes below the light blue 200 day moving average. Then i will be looking for it to cross the 50 day moving average again to go long just like what happened last year if it all plays out with some similarity. In this chart you can notice how it is doing similar price action to last year, and i circle the big lower bars which is volume showing large spikes in the red sell bars which is why i think we are in a distribution phase right before a trend down starts. Especially with the Iran war going on now, this is very likely to increase inflation and make everything start accelerating up in price again, from food to gold with some unknown delay of course. There are some stocks that look undervalued but i am not interested until the larger market decides a direction because if we have a crash scenario everything goes down most of the time and correlation becomes near 1:1. Whenever it hits the 200 day moving average it generally goes under it more times than it just bounces off of it when you look back in history so i would exercise extreme caution right now.
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