Title: "Synthetic Diamond Substitution and Market Dynamics: A Comparative Study of HPHT vs. CVD Production Methods and Their Economic Implications for Natural Diamond Mining in Botswana" Abstract: This study investigates the potential economic displacement of natural diamond mining by lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), with a focus on the comparative production methods of High Pressure High Temperature (HPHT) and Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD). Through an economic case study of Botswana—a nation heavily reliant on diamond exports—the research models income elasticity of demand for natural diamonds and projects future market shares of LGDs under varying growth scenarios. Findings indicate that, despite rapid expansion of LGD production, natural diamonds will continue to dominate the market in the near- to mid-term, with lab-grown diamonds posing minimal immediate threat to mining economies barring unforeseen market disruptions. The analysis underscores the structural and perceptual differences between HPHT and CVD synthetics while evaluating their collective impact on global diamond value chains and mining-dependent economies.