Unique Short Title:
"Asymmetric Flow Impact: Spot Noise vs. Futures Calm in Bitcoin Volatility"
Short Abstract:
This paper identifies a critical asymmetry in Bitcoin’s volatility drivers: unexpected, noise-driven volume on spot exchanges explains ~20% of daily volatility, reflecting uninformed retail trading. In contrast, CME futures volume—even when unexpected—shows no destabilizing effect and often exerts a calming influence. Using high-frequency data and a novel CME BRR-based volatility measure, we show futures act as a hedging and liquidity conduit, while spot markets remain the primary source of volatility shocks. Findings inform risk management, regulatory focus, and volatility-sensitive crypto investment strategies.