Folks from Kerala, why Covid cases are rising so d...
# randomi
icy-animal-10265
07/28/2021, 1:03 PMFolks from Kerala, why Covid cases are rising so drastically there ? I've not any proper analysis in English news yet, what's the word around locally ? Is it a like a new variant or just bad luck ?
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flat-morning-91037
07/28/2021, 1:06 PMJust a series of bad decisions.
Disclaimer: This thread may end up being political.
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icy-animal-10265
07/28/2021, 1:17 PMThat's what it looks from the outside. People living there might have a better idea
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gray-beach-48055
07/28/2021, 2:02 PMdamp-coat-97256
07/28/2021, 2:31 PMTldw - Kerala is not doing worse, it's catching up to rest of India
damp-coat-97256
07/28/2021, 2:33 PM@gray-beach-48055 good thread, same points mentioned by Bhramar Mukherjee in above interview
damp-coat-97256
07/28/2021, 2:34 PMKaran, like him or hate him, has been great in covid interviews.
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icy-animal-10265
07/29/2021, 4:58 AM@gray-beach-48055 that's a good thread.
Its a bit hard to believe lower number of people exposed to the virus should naturally lead to a surge
icy-animal-10265
07/29/2021, 5:02 AM@damp-coat-97256 I was hoping not to make it that partisan, but I guess I should have mentioned that.
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damp-coat-97256
07/29/2021, 5:04 AMOh, it's only the title that is that way. Anyway, the Kerala part of the discussion is not.
damp-coat-97256
07/29/2021, 5:09 AMApologies if you thought it was a post against Modi. I have also commented on the video asking if Kerala is catching up to India, isn't it also the case that India would have or will be having similar numbers irrespective of what the central govt had done. We have also seen similar in, say, Germany. Was lauded initially and ended in same state as rest of Europe.
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icy-animal-10265
07/29/2021, 5:13 AMI'm not a big fan of our political situation either. But my aim was to get to some scientific/statistical theories that people seeing the situation firsts hands might be holding. Because its so hard to get to those in the middle of all the politics
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flat-morning-91037
07/29/2021, 5:14 AMMy sole problem with what Kerala did was to lift restrictions in the name of faith despite knowing that cases are not on a decline, and moreover, SC participated in that nonsense while it intervened in other state to stop any religious gatherings even when cases were less than 100 in total.
And it isn’t about Kerala testing more, other states with higher population are also keeping testing on par. In Pune, we haven’t seen any significant decline yet, and rightfully, restrictions are still in place here.
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icy-animal-10265
07/29/2021, 5:15 AMAnd given how little Genome testing that happens here, can we speculate its a mutant variant perhaps ?
icy-animal-10265
07/29/2021, 5:17 AM@flat-morning-91037 that's something everyone with a certain political inclination likes to believe. It should be rooted in facts also. For eg, the festival restrictions were lifted in my state (TN) too, but there was barely any surge.
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flat-morning-91037
07/29/2021, 5:18 AMIt isn’t about political inclination, I’m against any and every gathering regardless of what religion festival belongs to. Besides, surge in numbers in Kerala vs Tamil Nadu are not a comparison, when you’re seeing a steady 10k+ 15k+ cases on daily basis in Kerala vs less than 2000 cases in TN, how does it make sense to lift restrictions?
flat-morning-91037
07/29/2021, 5:22 AMIt is as simple as if Center can’t control what State govt. can and can’t do due to how constitutional powers work in the country, SC should’ve applied a blanket ban on any gathering throughout the country.
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damp-coat-97256
07/29/2021, 5:43 AMCenter can’t control what State govtCenter can, they did during the first wave under the disaster management act. Second wave they didn’t want to be blamed about lockdowns etc.
damp-coat-97256
07/29/2021, 5:44 AMIf you remember first wave - Centre sets the minimum restriction level and no state can go below that. IF centre says 50% theatre occupancy, State can say 25% occupancy, not 75% occupancy etc.
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flat-morning-91037
07/29/2021, 5:49 AMOk, then that should’ve happened regardless of what festival was, provided that states don’t fight back again for center taking charge of how lockdowns should function.
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damp-coat-97256
07/29/2021, 5:49 AMKerala has been a weird case. I think we will know the full answers down the line. But main things to look at are hospitalization, CFR. If hospitals are free, cfr is low, they can make some call, even if they seem to be a mistake.
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flat-morning-91037
07/29/2021, 5:50 AMOnly thing I see going in favour of Kerala is mortality rate, and that was very apparent during peak of 2nd wave too where mortality in Kerala stayed around 1%.
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icy-animal-10265
07/29/2021, 6:04 AMOkay folks, lets wrap it at that note. (This discussion has potential to become a political debate 😬)
Thanks for sharing your views, I learned something from all of you 🙂
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