Yes, that's the right read. Speculative builds are chained strictly in queue order: each one is created on top of the branch of the build immediately ahead of it, and it carries every entry ahead of it in the queue. There's no way to assemble a "1 + 3" build that skips a queued entry, so when the entry at position 2 can't be rebased, there's no branch for 3 to stack onto and everything behind it waits.
The queue only re-forms once the conflicting entry is failed and removed, which is exactly the sequence you saw: 1 merged, 2 got kicked, and 3 onward started speculating again.
Your repo is set to run 4 at a time, and we can see it actively trying to start the extra builds but they were dying on the rebase before CI ever got a chance to run.
Two things that help in the meantime:
• Keep PRs restacked on trunk before they enter the queue.
• If you know a PR is going to conflict, pulling it out of the queue rather than letting it reach the front gets the rest of the queue moving sooner.
I'll note this underlying behavior as an unexpected product gap for the team.