my final choice: Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance (though my actual take hovers between Completely banned in the US and Restricted in the US based on the above considerations)
I think it:
• will not be downloadable in Apple's App Store in the US
• will be usable for those that have already downloaded it
• will be accessible without a VPN on the web (though maybe not "legally", with similar enforcement to under age social media use aka none)