I actually consider Lucee more "commercial" than Ortus, TBH.
I haven't paid much attention to Lucee lately so @Adam Cameron probably has more to say on the state of the project as an outside observer.
My sense is that it is understaffed and undermarketed, and I get the impression that quality control and bug fixing needs some attention... but, like I say, that's just a vague sense from what I see here. I don't pay any attention to the Lucee Discourse server, for example.
When Micha decided Lucee 5 would be based on OSGi, that pretty much killed the project for me. We have a bunch of "other JVM code" integrated into our Lucee app and there was no way to get it to work with OSGi, and that really accelerated our migration away from CFML. The one legacy app we have left has been pretty much untouched for several years, but we're concerned about the security of running an old CFML app on Java 8, which is why BoxLang appealed to us.
I think that if Ortus continue to show as much activity and attention to the community as they are right now, BoxLang will become very attractive for CFML devs currently on Lucee. I don't know whether it would ever eat into ACF.