Dave, sorry for my delay in replying. Just very busy in my troubleshooting consulting (no single thing affecting many; just the usual random issues I help folks with).
1) So about the CAR tool, it absolutely works with older versions. It's MEANT for moving settings between versions, and I've used it in skipping multiple releases.
As for that doc you quote, I don't even know what "unpacking" it's referring to; FWIW, a car is just a zip. I suspect it's verbiage from before the turn of the century, something that maybe applied in the early days. That said, I do recall some occasions where one jumping several versions might find some thing or two not to work right--but not entirely be unable to migrate anything.
2) About the lockdown and my recommendation to backup, no I meant the ENTIRE machine. The lockdown tool makes changes to cf, the web server (IIS or apache), the file system, and more.. So no, it's NOT just about the cfusion folder and/or your source code.
3) Indeed, as for your hoping to hear more from others, I can pretty much GUARANTEE that if you raise that question OUTSIDE this thread you'll get AMPLE response, pro and con. Asking in this thread (on the CAR feature) is like seeking Ramaswamy volunteers at a Biden rally. :-)
4) Finally, great to see the bug report. I'd have added a vote, but it's not possible on a mobile device (chrome on android): the vote button somehow is parked at the very bottom--blocked by links to the faq, TOU, and privacy policy. That is SO annoying. But I know @Mark Takata (Adobe) is working hard to get a major revision to the whole bug reporting experience, which is wonderful news.